Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
